In addition, the Federal Reserve Bulletins from the time report significant disruptions to retail trade (up to one-third of the workforce out at any specific time) and especially to nonessential gatherings. The effects vary by sector–the epidemics led to people curtailing unnecessary social activities and curtailing human contact, which led to larger falls in services and (semi-)durable goods, while the effect on manufacturing is influenced by trade spillovers. “Selected residential property price series – data documentation”. (2010) simulate mild and severe pandemics and find GDP losses of 0.6% to 2.5% for the mild scenario and 4.5% to 6% for the more severe scenario. “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. We have 611 property listing(s) in Hong Kong. 1918 flu saw annual GDP impact of 0.5%, with loss of 7% of monthly industrial production at peak (Oct 1918). Prepare for your home search with recent sales, real estate comps, photos, and more. “Has SARS Infected the Property Market? Browse photos, see new properties, get open house info, and research neighborhoods on Trulia. URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR14_bp_Pandemic_Risk_Jonas.pdf, Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Simon Wren-Lewis, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, and Richard D. Smith, 2010. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f605/da3a347548d5635e425a5531fdb64cd19c8d.pdf?_ga=2.70573072.1412815931.1583204112-1096427715.1583204112, James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006. She finds, based on transactions data covering 44 housing estates, that the onset of SARS coincides with a 1.6% decrease in house prices versus a pre-SARS trend (which is comparable with our 1.9%). 9.5% loss in industrial production in October 1918 (peak of epidemic) vs. July 1918, but less reliable data on other sectors. Page 2 For instance, a study by Kennedy, Thompson, and Vujanovic (2006) simulates a pandemic with ⅓ the mortality rate of the pandemic using a theoretical model. Importantly, she also finds that the onset of the SARS epidemic coincides with a 72% reduction in transaction volumes for these estates. Hong Kong lost 5.1% of monthly output during the 5 months of the SARS epidemic (or 1.75% of annualized GDP) and the US lost between 7% and 9.5% of monthly industrial production during the 1918 influenza epidemic, with an effect on annual GDP of 0.5%. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt24h9qh.10?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents, McKibbin, Warwick J., and Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. FRED URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QHKR628BIS, Brown, Tanner, 2020. The Hatzius report corroborates the Brown report–property transactions and transportation have nearly ceased due to avoidance behavior (some of it driven by a public policy response) while the consumption of coal fell by only 30% year over year, since people still need to heat their homes. We took quarterly unadjusted real residential real estate prices from the St. Louis Fed’s FRED website. 90 up-to-date properties for Sale in Happy Valley in Jan 2021. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. US, severe flu pandemic + trade disruption. Altogether, the total gap between actual and trend GDP during this period is consistent with a loss of 1.75% of annual GDP as a result of SARS, which when spread over 4 months instead of 12, represents a fall in monthly GDP of 5.1%. James and Sargent base their estimates on macro data from US flu pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. . At the start of the 2010s, median home prices across the Hawaiian islands had fallen to $450,124, down from a pre-recession peak of $537,100 in 2006, according to the online real estate database Zillow. They find that the severe 1918 pandemic reduced annual GDP by 0.5% in 1918, with smaller effects from the other two mild pandemics. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. The survey, which divides median house prices by gross annual median household income, found Hong Kong to clock in at 18.1. The United States has officially entered a bear market, with major financial indices falling by more than 20% since the beginning of the year. URL: Federal Reserve Bulletin, various issues, via Thomson Reuters. For the first time in recent memory, the number of Hong Kong … Neither realtor.com nor its affiliates guarantee that the conversion reflects current conversion rates and are not responsible for any inaccuracies. Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. URL: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-slows-chinas-property-market-to-a-crawl-and-even-the-most-robust-real-estate-app-is-no-match-2020-02-18. Trulia will be ListGlobally’s exclusive partner in the U.S. for international real estate search, launching international search capabilities in the first half of 2011. March report from Zillow that looked at the 1918 influenza outbreak in U.S. cities, and Hong Kong’s experience with SARS in 2003. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) (2006) summarizes much of this literature, giving a predicted loss caused by a severe flu epidemic (similar to 1918) of about 4.25% of annual GDP and an estimated loss caused by a mild epidemic (similar to 1957 or 1968) of about 1%. GDP data are shown as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 baseline. Jacalyn Duffin and Arthur Sweetman. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. Looking beyond real estate, Siu and Wong (2004) examine disaggregated macro data from the SARS episode, and they find that the travel, tourism, durable and semi-durable retail, and entertainment sectors were strongest hit, while production and exports were less affected. Connect to real estate Agents in South Korea on CENTURY 21 Global. Retrieved on March 1, 2020. , Goldman Sachs Economic Research. Lee and McKibbin find that their larger loss prediction is driven by the behavior of macro policy in their model. During SARS, Hong Kong house prices did not fall significantly, but transaction volumes fell by 33-72% as customers avoided human contact (“avoidance behavior” like avoiding travel, restaurants, and public gatherings). 72% fall in transactions volume. “Coronavirus slows China’s property market to a crawl — and even the most robust real-estate app is no match.” Marketwatch, Feb. 21, 2020, retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. URL:  https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/03/01/31bfffb7-f94a-4c0e-b0d6-49b1468aed2f.html, Hatzius, Jan, Daan Struyven, David Choi, and David Mericle, 2020. Working paper version URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/3828.pdf, Lee, Jong-Wha, and Warwick J. McKibbin, 2012. “A methodological note on the estimation of time series,” The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, pages 471-478. John Wiley, New York, pages 93-143. The original source of these data is the Bank of International Settlements (2020). realtor.com recommends that you independently verify any information before relying on it. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. By the time that SARS hit in February 2003, the Hong Kong real estate market had already experienced a downward trend in transactions and in a real residential price index. Evidence from Hong Kong.” Journal of Urban Economics 63(1), pages 74-05. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. The underlying data are reported by Persons (1931) and would correspond with a 2.4% fall in annual GDP for a three-month pandemic, given that industrial production is ordinarily more volatile than GDP. URL: https://research.gs.com/content/research/en/reports/2020/03/01/31bfffb7-f94a-4c0e-b0d6-49b1468aed2f.html, Hatzius, Jan, Daan Struyven, David Choi, and David Mericle, 2020. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. Statistically insignificant 1.9% fall in home prices, count of transactions down by an average of 33% for duration of pandemic. “Pandemic Risk.” World Development Report Background Paper, the World Bank. “The Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong.” Asian Economic Papers 3:1, pages 62-83. 1.3% increase in unemployment; unemployment recovered within 3 quarters. * Rental Incl. 0.3% to 1.1% of annualized GDP. realtor.com® is the official site of the National Association of REALTORS® and is operated by Move, Inc., a subsidiary of News Corp. “Will there be a recession in Trump’s 1st term?” Retrieved March 2, 2020. So, on average, if someone makes $50,000 in … The chart below shows how real GDP and unemployment evolved before, during, and after the SARS epidemic. Altogether, these disruptions corresponded with a fall in a monthly industrial production index from 123.4 in July 1918 to 112.2 in October 1918 (-9.5%). We first took logarithms and then interpolated it to a monthly basis using our own interpolation algorithm based on Fernandez (1981). Hong Kong lost 5.1% of monthly output during the 5 months of the SARS epidemic (or 1.75% of annualized GDP) and the US lost between 7% and 9.5% of monthly industrial production during the 1918 influenza epidemic, with an effect on annual GDP of 0.5%. We found the following main quantitative patterns: Empirical research into the SARS and 1918 influenza pandemics both indicate a significant loss in output during the time of the pandemic. Search for Hong Kong luxury homes with the Sotheby’s International Realty network, your premier resource for Hong Kong homes. Between February and May 2003, transactions were 33% below their January 2003 value, before returning to normal by July. Similarly, Douglas Szeto and Buckle (2006) predict that a severe pandemic would reduce New Zealand GDP by 5-10%. 2.63% loss in annualized GDP for Hong Kong, 1.05% loss for China. It also shows raw transaction counts of secondary residential real estate transactions, not seasonally adjusted, from Midland Realty (2020). Zillow Group is building a safe, on-demand real estate experience. “The Economic Impact of SARS and Pandemic Influenza.” In: , ed. During the current episode in China, early news reports indicate that home prices have so far not fallen but transactions have nearly ceased. Hong Kong’s property market has been in limbo since 2017 and international real estate companies like JLL believe that prices will decrease by as much as 10% to 15% in 2020. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-consequences-of-pandemic-influenza/. However, since these theoretical models are mainly constructed using annual aggregates, the models do not make any specific predictions about monthly or quarterly aggregates. “Statistics of Properties Transactions in Land Registry – Last 12 Months.” Retrieved on February 28, 2020. PredictIt, 2020. Quick recovery to trend after end of pandemic. “Impacts of a Potential Influenza Pandemic on New Zealand’s Macroeconomy.” Policy Perspective Paper 06/03, New Zealand Treasury. Find out what homes are worth in Hamburg, NY. 63(1), pages 74-05. Elsewhere in the literature, Wong (2008) comes to similar conclusions with respect to house prices. Zillow is the most popular online real estate information site, with 73 million unique visitors in December. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924371?seq=1, Garrett, Thomas A., 2007. 1981. The chart below shows a real residential real estate price index compiled by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) (2020), as a percent relative to a Q4 2001 or November 2001 baseline. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 2020. “Has SARS Infected the Property Market? Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Contrasting with the theoretical studies, the empirical study of James and Sargent (2006) predicts that a severe flu pandemic would reduce Canadian GDP by 0.3 percent to 1.1 percent. Age and Affordability: Why an Affordable Rental Home Is More Often an Older Home, and Why That Matters, Healthy Housing: Where Higher Rents Are Correlated With Worse Health, Nearly Two-Thirds of Americans Live Far From Healthy Food, Some by Choice and Some Not. This loss is slightly smaller than (but of the same order of magnitude as) the model-based projections of Lee and McKibbin (2012), who predict a larger effect of the disruptions to economic activity caused by the epidemic. URL:  http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1352909193861/8936935-1356011448215/8986901-1380568255405/WDR14_bp_Pandemic_Risk_Jonas.pdf, Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Simon Wren-Lewis, W. John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, and Richard D. Smith, 2010. Search for real estate and find the latest listings of Hong Kong Property for sale. URL: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f605/da3a347548d5635e425a5531fdb64cd19c8d.pdf?_ga=2.70573072.1412815931.1583204112-1096427715.1583204112, James, Steven, and Timothy Sargent, 2006. “The Possible Macroeconomic Impact on the UK of an Influenza Epidemic.” Health Economics 19(11), pages 1345-1360. If you are looking to buy Hong Kong luxury property or lease Hong Kong luxury property we make it easy to find your dream home by letting you filter using listing search results. Both datasets are obtained from the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 2006. Happy Valley properties for Sale, Happy Valley apartments for Sale information provided by Hong Kong Homes, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. Before February 2020, leading economic indicators (job openings, the yield curve, interest rate spreads, and sentiment indicators) were giving mixed signals about the risk of a standard recession this year, with betting markets (PredictIt, 2020) giving probabilities ranging from 30% in December 2019 to 15% in January 2020, rising to 44% as of March 1. We therefore urge caution in interpreting month-to-month movements. We have 8 luxury homes for sale in Hong Kong. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Richard Wong, 2004. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. “A Primer on the Macroeconomic Effects of an Influenza Pandemic.” Working Paper 2006-11, Treasury of Australia. Founded in 1976 to provide independent brokerages with a powerful marketing and referral program for luxury listings, the Sotheby's International Realty network was designed to connect the finest independent real estate companies to the most prestigious clientele in the world. Until the onset of SARS in February, GDP was growing and unemployment was falling, consistent with an economic expansion. Shift to at-home consumption, away from travel, restaurants, and entertainment. In Asia, REA operates MyFun.com for the Chinese market and squarefoot.com.hk in Hong Kong and recently acquired a 17.22% stake in iProperty, the leading online real estate … URL: https://en.midland.com.hk/land-registry-record/12months.html, Persons, W.M., 1931. “The Impact of SARS,” in. URL: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8626/8607/INFLUENZA%20REFERENCES%20IN%20THE%20FEDERAL%20RESERVE%20BULLETIN%201918-19.pdf, Fernández R.B. 1, 2020. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2020. Empirical research into the SARS and 1918 influenza pandemics both indicate a significant loss in output during the time of the pandemic. “A methodological note on the estimation of time series,”, https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924371?seq=1. For the UK, Keogh-Brown et al. , various issues. Luxury homes in Hong Kong have between 1 and 8 bedrooms and averages 246 ㎡ in size. The market has fallen in response to a mix of information, including global community spread of the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19, a travel ban for Europeans into the US, and general uncertainty about a fiscal response to the virus. We note that this fall is difficult to distinguish from the preexisting downward trend. Since consumers wish to avoid nonessential human contact, the 2003 SARS pandemic led to a temporary fall in monthly real estate transactions from 33% to 72% vs. baseline for the duration of the epidemic, while real estate prices held steady. Malaysia's Richest. If you wish to report an issue or seek an accommodation, please let us know. The most popular property types are House (593) and Apartment (2). Retrieved on March 1, 2020. Search for real estate and find the latest listings of Hong Kong Island Property for sale. Data in upcoming weeks will tell us how long this outbreak lasts in China. Beyond the SARS literature, there is an extensive literature on the past and likely effects of an influenza epidemic. Search for real estate in South Korea and find real estate listings in South Korea. Find Property for sale in Hong Kong Island. Retrieved on Feb. 28, 2020. “Selected residential property price series – data documentation”. If macro policy responds effectively to an epidemic, then the loss in output would be smaller than if it did not respond. 1, 2020. Forecasting Business Cycles. Brokerage, By searching Northstar MLS listings you agree to the Northstar MLS End User License Agreement. Altogether, the theoretical literature on influenza has given somewhat larger output losses than historical data, although the empirical literature and historical data indicate that output losses vary according to geography (harder-hit areas have higher output losses) and sector (nonessential services being hardest hit). ... is planning a $797M IPO in Hong Kong… After Years of Decline, Household Formation Rates Were Improving Pre-Pandemic. Hong Kong Property, Apartment for Rent and for Sale (Jan 2021) Houses (3 days ago) The above rental or sale information is provided by the hong kong property agency Landscope Real Estate Services Ltd or its sister companies, a premier real estate agent specializing in realty, residential property for rent and sale in Hong Kong. Get hired! Use the filters above to narrow your search for luxury homes for sale in Hong Kong. Lee and McKibbin simulate such an epidemic using a theoretical model (the “G-cubed” model), and they predict a loss of 2.63% of annual GDP for Hong Kong as a result of the SARS epidemic, versus a loss of 1.05% of annual GDP for China. 1.6% fall in home value, 2.8% in infected areas. Douglas, James, Kam Szeto, and Bob Buckle, 2006. Retrieved on Mar. 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